In the early parts of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first inauguration speech he said the well-known words: ‘The only thing we need to be afraid is fear itself.’
And according to Tobias Levkovich at Citi: FDR was right.
And right currently there are a bunch of financiers afraid of concern despite an US economic situation that in his view looks quite good.
‘There seems fear of worry itself as view is just terrible,’ Levkovich wrote.
‘Virtually every investor we speak with believes we are too pollyannish by thinking the world isn’t really ready to go off the side.’
Clients are pertaining to Levkovich, the main equity strategist at Citi, with frequently altering issues over monetary developments, most just recently the growths in European banks.
On Thursday morning, of training course, these unreliable capitalists appear warranted as global markets are tanking while traditional ‘safe-haven’ trades like gold as well as United States Treasuries seeing an inflow of buying.
Levkovich, we would certainly note, is notoriously bullish as well as has a year-end price target on the S&P 500 of 2,200. On Thursday early morning S&P 500 futures were trading near 1,800.
‘The banking woes across the bond and dramatically weaker equity markets in periphery nations like Greece and also Italy look producing new anxiousness in the US,’ Levkovich wrote. ‘Terms like counterparty risk and also potentially brand-new European financial institution equity resources has to counter write-offs are coming to the fore when talking with investors.’
To Lekovich, this shows that fear is driving the market. Levkovich highlights recent labor market data from the US – including the most recent readings on work openings, which revealed a high degree of turnover in the labor market, indicating confidence among US employees – which suggests an economic climate that is not ready to roll over.
And while international markets could definitely have a big sell-off without a recession, at some factor this will quit when markets realize, as Levkovich composes, the globe isn’t really around to break down.
As Levkovich writes, ‘It looks quite considerably like 2011-12 as well as absolutely nothing like 2008.’